John Drake


Distinguished Research Professor and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs
Director, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases
Graduate Faculty

Professional Website

Education

Ph.D. – University of Notre Dame

Research Interests

Research Interests

  • Population dynamics
  • Epidemiology
  • Computational ecology

Research Projects

  • Global patterns, predictors, and their dynamical consequences in zoonotic diseases of mammals
  • Forecasting tipping points in emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.
  • Population biology of West Nile virus in New York City;
  • Evolutionary dynamics of avian influenza virus;
  • Ecological niche identification and geographic range prediction for disease vectors;
  • Extinction in experimental zooplankton populations
Selected Publications

O’Dea, E.B. & J.M. Drake. Disentangling reporting and disease transmission. Theoretical Ecology. (In press.)

Kaul, R., M.V. Evans, C.C. Murdock & J.M. Drake. Spatio-temporal spillover risk of yellow fever in Brazil. Parasites & Vectors. (In press.)

Evans, M.V., J.C. Shiau, N. Solano, M.A. Brindley, J.M. Drake & C.C. Murdock. Carry-over effects of urban larval environments on the transmission potential of dengue-2 virus. Parasites & Vectors.

E.B. Laber, N. Meyer, B. Reich, J. Collazo & J.M. Drake. On-line estimation of an optimal treatment allocation strategy for the control of White-nose Syndrome in bats. Journal of the Royal Society, Series C. 67:743-789.

O’Dea, E.B., A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. Estimating the distance to an epidemic threshold. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 15:20180034. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2018.0034

Brett, T.S., E.B. O’Dea, E. Marty, P.B. Miller, A.W. Park, J.M. Drake & P. Rohani. Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data. PLOS Computational Biology 14:e1006204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006204

Evans, M.V., C. Murdock & J.M. Drake. Anticipating emerging arboviruses: What comes after Zika? Trends in Parasitology 34:544-547. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pt.2018.02.010

Park, A.W., M.J. Farrell, J.P. Schmidt, S. Huang, T.A. Dallas, P. Pappalardo, J.M. Drake, P.R. Stephens, R. Poulin, C.L. Nunn, & T.J. Davies. 2018. Characterizing the phylogenetic specialism-generalism spectrum of mammal parasites. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 285:20162613. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.2613

Dallas, T., M. Krkosek & J.M. Drake. Experimental evidence of pathogen invasion threshold. Royal Society Open Science 5:171975.

Fisher, M.A., J.E. Vinson, J.L. Gittleman & J.M. Drake. 2018. The description and number of undiscovered mammal species. Ecology & Evolution. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3724

Berec, L., A.M. Kramer, V. Bernhauerova & J.M. Drake. 2018. Density-dependent selection on mate search and the evolution of Allee effects. Journal of Animal Ecology 87:24-35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12662

Noori, N., J.M. Drake & P. Rohani. Comparative epidemiology of poliomyelitis transmission around the world. Scientific Reports 7:17362. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17749-5

Miller, P.B., E.B. O’Dea, P. Rohani & J.M. Drake. 2017. Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing. BMC Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 14:17. http://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-017-0063-8

Schmidt, J.P., J.M. Drake & P. Stephens. 2017. Residence time, native range size, and genome size predict naturalization among angiosperms introduced to Australia. Ecology & Evolution 7:10298-10300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.3505

Dallas, T.A., S. Huang, C. Nunn, A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2017. Estimating parasite host range. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 284:20171250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.1250

Drake, J.M. & S.I. Hay. 2017. Monitoring the path to the elimination of infectious diseases. Tropical Medicine & Infectious Disease 2:20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed2030020

Brett, T.S., J.M. Drake & P. Rohani. 2017. Anticipating the emergence of infectious diseases. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 14:20170115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0115

Dallas, T.A., A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2017. Predicting cryptic links in host-parasite networks. PLOS Computational Biology 13:e1005557. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005557

Schatz, A., A.M. Kramer & J.M. Drake. 2017. Accuracy of climate-based forecasts of pathogen spread. Royal Society Open Science 4:160975. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160975

Evans, M.V., T.A. Dallas, B.A. Han, C.C. Murdock & J.M. Drake. 2017. Data-driven identification of potential Zika virus vectors. eLife 6:e22053. http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.22053

Schmidt, J.P., A.W. Park, A.M. Kramer, B.A. Han, L.W. Alexander & J.M. Drake. 2017. Spatiotemporal fluctuations and triggers of Ebolavirus spillover. Emerging Infectious Diseases 23:415-422. https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2303.160101

Dallas, T., A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2017. Predictability of helminth parasite host range using information on geography, host traits and parasite community structure. Parasitology. 144:200-205. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0031182016001608

Dallas, T. & J.M. Drake. 2016. Fluctuating temperatures alter environmental pathogen transmission in a Daphnia-pathogen system. Ecology & Evolution 6:79317938 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2539

Dibble, C.J., E.B. O’Dea, A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2016. Waiting time to infectious disease emergence. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 13:20160540. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0540

Kramer, A., J. Ward, F. Dobbs, M. Pierce & J.M. Drake. 2016. The contribution of marine aggregate-associated bacteria to the accumulation of pathogenic bacteria in oysters: an agent-based model. Ecology & Evolution 6:7397-7408. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2467

Zarada, K. & J.M. Drake. 2016. Time to extinction in deteriorating environments. Theoretical Ecology. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12080-016-0311-2

Dallas, T., A.M. Kramer, M. Zokan & J.M. Drake. 2016. Ordination obscures the influence of environment on plankton metacommunity structure. Limnology & Oceanography Letters 1:54-61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/lol2.10028

Hefley, T.J., M. Hooten, J.M. Drake, R. Russel & D. Walsh. 2016. When can the cause of a population decline be determined? Ecology Letters 19:13531362. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.12671

Kramer, A.M., J.T. Pulliam, L. Alexander, P. Rohani, A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2016. Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Royal Society Open Science 3:160294. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.160294

Han, B., J.P. Schmidt, L. Alexander, S.E. Bowden, D.T.S. Hayman & J.M. Drake. 2016. Undiscovered bat hosts of filoviruses. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10:e0004815. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004815

Stephens, P.R., S. Altizer, K.F. Smith, A.A. Aguirre, J.H. Brown, S.A. Budischak, J.E. Byers, J.T. Davies, J.M. Drake, V.O. Ezenwa, M.J. Farrell, J.L. Gittleman, B.A. Han, S. Huang, R.A. Hutchinson, P. Johnson, C.L. Nunn, D. Onstad, A. Park, G.M. Vazquez-Prokopec, J.P. Schmidt & R. Poulin. 2016. The macroecology of infectious diseases: A new perspective on global-scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts. Ecology Letters 19:1159-1171. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.12644

Vinson, J.E., J.M. Drake, P. Rohani & A.W. Park. 2016. The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks. Biology Letters 12:20151079. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2015.1079

Han, B.A., A.M. Kramer & J.M. Drake. 2016. Global patterns of zoonotic disease in mammals. Trends in Parasitology 32:565-577. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pt.2016.04.007

R.B. Kaul, A.M. Kramer, F.C. Dobbs & J.M. Drake. 2016. Experimental demonstration of Allee effects in microbial populations. Biology Letters 12:20160070. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0070

Drake, J.M. & A.W. Park. 2016. A model for coupled outbreaks contained by behavior change. Pp. 25-37 in Mathematical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, G. Chowell & M. Hyman, eds. Springer: New York.

Dallas, T., M. Holtackers & J.M. Drake. 2016. Costs of resistance and infection in a Daphnia-microparasite system. Ecology & Evolution 6:1737-1744. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1889

O’Regan, S.M., J.W. Lillie & J.M. Drake. 2016. Leading indicators of mosquito-borne disease elimination. Theoretical Ecology 9:269-286. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12080-015-0285-5

Dallas, T., R.J. Hall & J.M. Drake. 2016. Competition-mediated feedbacks in experimental multi-species epizootics. Ecology 97:661-670. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/15-0305.1

Han, B., J.P. Schmidt, S. Bowden & J.M. Drake. 2015. Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 112:7039-7044.

Drake, J.M., R.B. Kaul, L.W. Alexander, S.M. O’Regan, A.M. Kramer, J.T. Pulliam, M.J. Ferrari & A.W. Park. 2015. Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia. PLOS Biology 13:e1002056.

Krkošek, M. & J.M. Drake. 2014. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 281:20133221.

Drake, J.M. 2014. Ensemble algorithms for ecological niche modeling from presence background and presence-only data. Ecosphere 5:76.

Drake, J.M. 2013. Early warning signals of stochastic switching. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 280:20130686.

Bhatt, S., Gething, P.W., Brady, O.J., Messina, J.P., Farlow, A.W., Moyes, C.L., Drake, J.M., Brownstein, J.S., Hoen, A.G., Sankoh, O., Myers, M.F., George, D.B., Jaenisch, T., Wint, G.R.W., Simmons, C.P., Scott, T.W., Farrar, J.J. & Hay, S.I. 2013. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature 496:504-507.

Drake, J.M. & B.D. Griffen. 2010. Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments. Nature 467:456-459.