John Drake

Distinguished Research Professor and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs
Director, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases
Graduate Faculty

Professional Website


Ph.D. – University of Notre Dame

Research Interests

Research Interests

  • Population dynamics
  • Epidemiology
  • Computational ecology

Research Projects

  • Global patterns, predictors, and their dynamical consequences in zoonotic diseases of mammals
  • Forecasting tipping points in emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.
  • Population biology of West Nile virus in New York City;
  • Evolutionary dynamics of avian influenza virus;
  • Ecological niche identification and geographic range prediction for disease vectors;
  • Extinction in experimental zooplankton populations
Selected Publications

O’Dea, E.B. & J.M. Drake. Disentangling reporting and disease transmission. Theoretical Ecology. (In press.)

Kaul, R., M.V. Evans, C.C. Murdock & J.M. Drake. Spatio-temporal spillover risk of yellow fever in Brazil. Parasites & Vectors. (In press.)

Evans, M.V., J.C. Shiau, N. Solano, M.A. Brindley, J.M. Drake & C.C. Murdock. Carry-over effects of urban larval environments on the transmission potential of dengue-2 virus. Parasites & Vectors.

E.B. Laber, N. Meyer, B. Reich, J. Collazo & J.M. Drake. On-line estimation of an optimal treatment allocation strategy for the control of White-nose Syndrome in bats. Journal of the Royal Society, Series C. 67:743-789.

O’Dea, E.B., A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. Estimating the distance to an epidemic threshold. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 15:20180034.

Brett, T.S., E.B. O’Dea, E. Marty, P.B. Miller, A.W. Park, J.M. Drake & P. Rohani. Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data. PLOS Computational Biology 14:e1006204.

Evans, M.V., C. Murdock & J.M. Drake. Anticipating emerging arboviruses: What comes after Zika? Trends in Parasitology 34:544-547.

Park, A.W., M.J. Farrell, J.P. Schmidt, S. Huang, T.A. Dallas, P. Pappalardo, J.M. Drake, P.R. Stephens, R. Poulin, C.L. Nunn, & T.J. Davies. 2018. Characterizing the phylogenetic specialism-generalism spectrum of mammal parasites. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 285:20162613.

Dallas, T., M. Krkosek & J.M. Drake. Experimental evidence of pathogen invasion threshold. Royal Society Open Science 5:171975.

Fisher, M.A., J.E. Vinson, J.L. Gittleman & J.M. Drake. 2018. The description and number of undiscovered mammal species. Ecology & Evolution.

Berec, L., A.M. Kramer, V. Bernhauerova & J.M. Drake. 2018. Density-dependent selection on mate search and the evolution of Allee effects. Journal of Animal Ecology 87:24-35.

Noori, N., J.M. Drake & P. Rohani. Comparative epidemiology of poliomyelitis transmission around the world. Scientific Reports 7:17362.

Miller, P.B., E.B. O’Dea, P. Rohani & J.M. Drake. 2017. Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing. BMC Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 14:17.

Schmidt, J.P., J.M. Drake & P. Stephens. 2017. Residence time, native range size, and genome size predict naturalization among angiosperms introduced to Australia. Ecology & Evolution 7:10298-10300.

Dallas, T.A., S. Huang, C. Nunn, A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2017. Estimating parasite host range. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 284:20171250.

Drake, J.M. & S.I. Hay. 2017. Monitoring the path to the elimination of infectious diseases. Tropical Medicine & Infectious Disease 2:20.

Brett, T.S., J.M. Drake & P. Rohani. 2017. Anticipating the emergence of infectious diseases. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 14:20170115.

Dallas, T.A., A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2017. Predicting cryptic links in host-parasite networks. PLOS Computational Biology 13:e1005557.

Schatz, A., A.M. Kramer & J.M. Drake. 2017. Accuracy of climate-based forecasts of pathogen spread. Royal Society Open Science 4:160975.

Evans, M.V., T.A. Dallas, B.A. Han, C.C. Murdock & J.M. Drake. 2017. Data-driven identification of potential Zika virus vectors. eLife 6:e22053.

Schmidt, J.P., A.W. Park, A.M. Kramer, B.A. Han, L.W. Alexander & J.M. Drake. 2017. Spatiotemporal fluctuations and triggers of Ebolavirus spillover. Emerging Infectious Diseases 23:415-422.

Dallas, T., A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2017. Predictability of helminth parasite host range using information on geography, host traits and parasite community structure. Parasitology. 144:200-205.

Dallas, T. & J.M. Drake. 2016. Fluctuating temperatures alter environmental pathogen transmission in a Daphnia-pathogen system. Ecology & Evolution 6:79317938

Dibble, C.J., E.B. O’Dea, A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2016. Waiting time to infectious disease emergence. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 13:20160540.

Kramer, A., J. Ward, F. Dobbs, M. Pierce & J.M. Drake. 2016. The contribution of marine aggregate-associated bacteria to the accumulation of pathogenic bacteria in oysters: an agent-based model. Ecology & Evolution 6:7397-7408.

Zarada, K. & J.M. Drake. 2016. Time to extinction in deteriorating environments. Theoretical Ecology.

Dallas, T., A.M. Kramer, M. Zokan & J.M. Drake. 2016. Ordination obscures the influence of environment on plankton metacommunity structure. Limnology & Oceanography Letters 1:54-61.

Hefley, T.J., M. Hooten, J.M. Drake, R. Russel & D. Walsh. 2016. When can the cause of a population decline be determined? Ecology Letters 19:13531362.

Kramer, A.M., J.T. Pulliam, L. Alexander, P. Rohani, A.W. Park & J.M. Drake. 2016. Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Royal Society Open Science 3:160294.

Han, B., J.P. Schmidt, L. Alexander, S.E. Bowden, D.T.S. Hayman & J.M. Drake. 2016. Undiscovered bat hosts of filoviruses. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10:e0004815.

Stephens, P.R., S. Altizer, K.F. Smith, A.A. Aguirre, J.H. Brown, S.A. Budischak, J.E. Byers, J.T. Davies, J.M. Drake, V.O. Ezenwa, M.J. Farrell, J.L. Gittleman, B.A. Han, S. Huang, R.A. Hutchinson, P. Johnson, C.L. Nunn, D. Onstad, A. Park, G.M. Vazquez-Prokopec, J.P. Schmidt & R. Poulin. 2016. The macroecology of infectious diseases: A new perspective on global-scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts. Ecology Letters 19:1159-1171.

Vinson, J.E., J.M. Drake, P. Rohani & A.W. Park. 2016. The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks. Biology Letters 12:20151079.

Han, B.A., A.M. Kramer & J.M. Drake. 2016. Global patterns of zoonotic disease in mammals. Trends in Parasitology 32:565-577.

R.B. Kaul, A.M. Kramer, F.C. Dobbs & J.M. Drake. 2016. Experimental demonstration of Allee effects in microbial populations. Biology Letters 12:20160070.

Drake, J.M. & A.W. Park. 2016. A model for coupled outbreaks contained by behavior change. Pp. 25-37 in Mathematical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, G. Chowell & M. Hyman, eds. Springer: New York.

Dallas, T., M. Holtackers & J.M. Drake. 2016. Costs of resistance and infection in a Daphnia-microparasite system. Ecology & Evolution 6:1737-1744.

O’Regan, S.M., J.W. Lillie & J.M. Drake. 2016. Leading indicators of mosquito-borne disease elimination. Theoretical Ecology 9:269-286.

Dallas, T., R.J. Hall & J.M. Drake. 2016. Competition-mediated feedbacks in experimental multi-species epizootics. Ecology 97:661-670.

Han, B., J.P. Schmidt, S. Bowden & J.M. Drake. 2015. Rodent reservoirs of future zoonotic diseases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 112:7039-7044.

Drake, J.M., R.B. Kaul, L.W. Alexander, S.M. O’Regan, A.M. Kramer, J.T. Pulliam, M.J. Ferrari & A.W. Park. 2015. Ebola cases and health system demand in Liberia. PLOS Biology 13:e1002056.

Krkošek, M. & J.M. Drake. 2014. On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 281:20133221.

Drake, J.M. 2014. Ensemble algorithms for ecological niche modeling from presence background and presence-only data. Ecosphere 5:76.

Drake, J.M. 2013. Early warning signals of stochastic switching. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B 280:20130686.

Bhatt, S., Gething, P.W., Brady, O.J., Messina, J.P., Farlow, A.W., Moyes, C.L., Drake, J.M., Brownstein, J.S., Hoen, A.G., Sankoh, O., Myers, M.F., George, D.B., Jaenisch, T., Wint, G.R.W., Simmons, C.P., Scott, T.W., Farrar, J.J. & Hay, S.I. 2013. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature 496:504-507.

Drake, J.M. & B.D. Griffen. 2010. Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments. Nature 467:456-459.